Grayscale Investment's CEO, Michael Sonnenshein, has made a striking forecast about the fate of most Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he predicted that only a few of the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs recently approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would survive.
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Sonnenshein's comments highlight the intense competition among these ETFs, which have been battling for market share since their trading debut in the US on January 11th, following their approval.
To attract investors, many ETFs have significantly lowered their trading fees, setting them in the range of 0.2% to 0.4%, with some offering temporary fee waivers. Grayscale, however, stands out in this crowd. As the largest Bitcoin holder among the ETF issuers, it has set its fees at a notable 1.5%, opting not to provide any waivers.
Despite the competitive fee structure of its spot Bitcoin ETF product, Sonnenshein remains confident about its long-term prospects. He argues that only two or three of the current 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs have the resilience to stay in the market:
I think from our standpoint, it may at times call into question their long-term commitment to the asset class <...> I don’t ultimately think that the marketplace will have ultimately these 11 spot products we find ourselves having.
The competitive ETF landscape has sparked varied opinions among industry leaders. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, doesn't dismiss the likelihood of most ETF issuers failing in the long run.
Quantum Economics' founder suggests that many investors may prefer direct asset ownership or self-custody. Despite this, Greenspan acknowledges the current utility of spot ETFs for certain portfolio managers seeking exposure to Bitcoin. He commented:
But having 11 of them is pretty ridiculous. There will have to be a consolidation, and they all know it, which is why fees are on the floor.
Another perspective comes from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. During X (formerly Twitter) spaces, she discussed the coexistence of self-custody and spot Bitcoin ETFs. Wood, whose firm's Bitcoin ETF charges a 0.21% fee, emphasized that their objective isn't profit maximization:
We are looking at Bitcoin as a public good. And one of the ways to do that is this low-fee product. We have other actively managed strategies where we can do more on the profitability side. That is not our objective here.
As the market continues to evolve, the future of spot Bitcoin ETFs remains a hot topic for discussion. With varying strategies and visions among issuers, only time will reveal which products will thrive and which will fade away. The current landscape of the cryptocurrency market, characterized by competitive fee structures and diverse investor preferences, sets the stage for a dynamic and unpredictable future for these financial products.
